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Who will win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?·closes in 28mo

Will Chris Murphy win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

YES means Chris Murphy

24h volume
113
35.3k lifetime
Open interest
15.5k
Spread
5¢
10 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
46 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%−2

A YES contract costs 23¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 23¢
NO bid / ask
77¢ / 82¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,55673¢
  • ask2,03565¢
  • ask1,46264¢
  • ask1,52242¢
  • ask66141¢
  • ask5636¢
  • ask7835¢
  • ask20023¢
spread5¢mid 21¢
  • bid1018¢
  • bid20017¢
  • bid10016¢
  • bid109¢
  • bid2929¢
  • bid483¢
  • bid323¢
  • bid3,2223¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Chris Murphy wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. For referendums, "Yes" and "No" are the options. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) is the winner. Markets resolve based on official results, not exit polls or projections. If elections are postponed beyond the expiration date, markets resolve to No. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 25, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01-CMUR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 110¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 46 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago21¢113bought yes
2d ago23¢29bought yes
6d ago23¢1bought yes
6d ago24¢78bought yes
7d ago24¢12bought yes
7d ago24¢9.89bought yes
13d ago23¢54bought yes
23d ago22¢63bought yes
1mo ago22¢6.14bought yes
1mo ago20¢1bought yes
1mo ago21¢47bought yes
1mo ago16¢72bought no
1mo ago22¢43bought yes
1mo ago21¢1bought no
1mo ago43¢9.03bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.