Democratic nominee for New York Senate·closes in 38mo

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York?

YES means Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

24h volume: 3.14; 10.3k lifetime
Open interest: 7,044
Spread: 35¢; 5 × 5 at the touch
24h range: 3¢ – 4¢

Chance of YES

3%−2

A YES contract costs 39¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

97%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask

4¢ / 39¢

NO bid / ask

61¢ / 96¢

24h low 3¢24h high 4¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III New York Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

opened: Dec 4, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes: Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXSENATENYD-28-AOC

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.