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Serbian PM after next election·closes in 28mo

Will Ana Brnabić become Prime Minister of Serbia following the next Serbian general election?

YES means Ana Brnabić

24h volume
0
1,728 lifetime
Open interest
1,710
Spread
5¢
500 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
21 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 89¢
Recent buying1% YES · 99% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask772¢
  • ask1,34071¢
  • ask11070¢
  • ask1539¢
  • ask50019¢
  • ask15018¢
  • ask517¢
  • ask516¢
spread5¢mid 14¢
  • bid50011¢
  • bid7042¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ana Brnabić becomes Prime Minister of Serbia as a result of government formation following the next Serbian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Dec 31, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 9 · 8:25 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSERBIAPM-27DEC31-ABRN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 93¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 21 trades, 1% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11d ago2¢4bought no
1mo ago14¢108bought no
1mo ago14¢70bought no
1mo ago4¢9bought yes
1mo ago12¢9bought no
1mo ago12¢20bought no
1mo ago12¢20bought no
1mo ago12¢102bought no
1mo ago13¢10bought no
1mo ago13¢5bought no
1mo ago13¢9bought no
1mo ago12¢10bought no
1mo ago13¢14bought no
1mo ago13¢45bought no
1mo ago13¢15bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.