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Serbian PM after next election·closes in 28mo

Will Aleksandar Vučić become Prime Minister of Serbia following the next Serbian general election?

YES means Aleksandar Vučić

24h volume
0
4,764 lifetime
Open interest
2,615
+2,615 over 90d
Spread
6¢
500 × 150 at the touch
24h range
22¢ – 89¢
38 recent trades
Chance of YES
70%

A YES contract costs 72¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
30%

costs 34¢

YES bid / ask
66¢ / 72¢
NO bid / ask
28¢ / 34¢
24h low 22¢24h high 89¢
Recent buying38% YES · 62% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢volJul 11Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,50096¢
  • ask1,55495¢
  • ask37694¢
  • ask49185¢
  • ask49184¢
  • ask80082¢
  • ask50074¢
  • ask15072¢
spread6¢mid 69¢
  • bid50066¢
  • bid7.3255¢
  • bid15043¢
  • bid5640¢
  • bid80039¢
  • bid1,84437¢
  • bid62034¢
  • bid3,75630¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Aleksandar Vučić becomes Prime Minister of Serbia as a result of government formation following the next Serbian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Dec 31, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 9 · 8:25 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSERBIAPM-27DEC31-AVUC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 93¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 38 trades, 38% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago70¢1.93bought yes
5d ago66¢5bought no
5d ago65¢259bought no
5d ago66¢10bought no
8d ago72¢10bought yes
8d ago72¢5bought yes
8d ago73¢52bought yes
10d ago65¢100bought no
11d ago55¢13bought no
11d ago85¢0.01bought yes
11d ago85¢8.67bought yes
11d ago84¢4bought yes
12d ago68¢500bought yes
16d ago89¢147bought yes
16d ago62¢500bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.