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SNL successor·closes in 16mo

Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?

YES means Kenan Thompson

24h volume
0
5,334 lifetime
Open interest
1,713
+14 over 90d
Spread
8¢
100 × 5 at the touch
24h range
5¢ – 16¢
20 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 95¢
24h low 5¢24h high 16¢
Recent buying24% YES · 76% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volJun 24Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask78458¢
  • ask72457¢
  • ask0.7239¢
  • ask4.2733¢
  • ask41628¢
  • ask2027¢
  • ask10014¢
  • ask513¢
spread8¢mid 9¢
  • bid1005¢
  • bid3013¢
  • bid4302¢
  • bid201¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Kenan Thompson is announced to be succeeding Lorne Michaels as showrunner of SNL before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 21, 2025 · 2:51 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSNL-28-KT
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 20 trades, 24% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago6¢3.2bought no
1d ago5¢3.37bought no
4d ago7¢51bought no
4d ago7¢1.07bought no
13d ago13¢1.28bought yes
13d ago14¢49bought yes
27d ago13¢0.72bought yes
1mo ago7¢1.07bought no
1mo ago11¢4.27bought yes
1mo ago5¢20bought no
1mo ago6¢1bought no
1mo ago6¢1bought no
1mo ago6¢14bought no
1mo ago7¢1bought no
1mo ago7¢18bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.