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SpaceX Mars·closes in 40mo

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

YES means Before 2030

24h volume
23
89.5k lifetime
Open interest
26.0k
+3,270 over 90d
Spread
2¢
503 × 5 at the touch
24h range
10¢ – 18¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%−11

A YES contract costs 23¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 23¢
NO bid / ask
77¢ / 79¢
24h low 10¢24h high 18¢
Recent buying35% YES · 65% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢volJun 23Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20431¢
  • ask18330¢
  • ask50029¢
  • ask61228¢
  • ask6226¢
  • ask1225¢
  • ask1.2124¢
  • ask523¢
spread2¢mid 22¢
  • bid50321¢
  • bid4510¢
  • bid149¢
  • bid1398¢
  • bid7717¢
  • bid2,5006¢
  • bid17.4k5¢
  • bid6.234¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If SpaceX lands anything on Mars before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 19, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSPACEXMARS-30
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 35% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10h ago17¢12bought no
10h ago18¢6bought no
10h ago10¢5.17bought no
1d ago21¢2.49bought no
2d ago21¢0.17bought no
2d ago22¢5bought no
2d ago22¢10bought no
2d ago22¢7.83bought no
2d ago22¢0.17bought no
3d ago25¢38bought yes
3d ago19¢1.21bought no
3d ago24¢31bought yes
3d ago23¢5bought yes
3d ago24¢43bought yes
6d ago19¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.