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Prime Minister of Spain after the next general election?·closes in 23mo

Will Pedro Sánchez become Prime Minister of Spain following the next Spanish general election?

YES means Pedro Sánchez

24h volume
0
1,721 lifetime
Open interest
1,056
+1,056 over 90d
Spread
7¢
500 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
20 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 21¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask
14¢ / 21¢
NO bid / ask
79¢ / 86¢
Recent buying79% YES · 21% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢volJul 11Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Pedro Sánchez becomes Prime Minister of Spain as a result of government formation following the next Spanish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Aug 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 9 · 8:30 PM UTC
closes
Aug 22, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 22, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSPANISHPM-27AUG22-PSAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 20 trades, 79% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
17d ago14¢156bought no
17d ago15¢7.34bought no
18d ago20¢3.34bought yes
18d ago14¢1bought no
1mo ago17¢160bought yes
1mo ago16¢3.34bought yes
1mo ago11¢3.34bought no
2mo ago16¢5bought yes
2mo ago17¢15bought yes
2mo ago16¢145bought yes
2mo ago16¢56bought yes
2mo ago15¢3.91bought yes
2mo ago16¢12bought yes
2mo ago15¢1.09bought yes
2mo ago9¢1.09bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.