Will Santiago Abascal become Prime Minister of Spain following the next Spanish general election?
YES means Santiago Abascal
- 24h volume
- 0
- 289 lifetime
- Open interest
- 267
- +266 over 90d
- Spread
- 5¢
- 28 × 505 at the touch
- 24h range
- 1¢ – 6¢
- 2 recent trades
A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 99¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Santiago Abascal becomes Prime Minister of Spain as a result of government formation following the next Spanish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Aug 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
- opened
- Jul 9 · 8:30 PM UTC
- closes
- Aug 22, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Aug 22, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXSPANISHPM-27AUG22-SABA
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).
Recent trades
Over the last 2 trades, 42% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2mo ago | 6¢ | 16 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 1¢ | 22 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.