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51st US state·closes in 28mo

Will the United States add another state before date?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
21
86.1k lifetime
Open interest
22.6k
+1.73 over 7d
Spread
3¢
133 × 59 at the touch
24h range
9¢ – 13¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%+5

A YES contract costs 12¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 12¢
NO bid / ask
88¢ / 91¢
24h low 9¢24h high 13¢
Recent buying32% YES · 68% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8128¢
  • ask2027¢
  • ask1017¢
  • ask1016¢
  • ask1015¢
  • ask28214¢
  • ask20713¢
  • ask5912¢
spread3¢mid 11¢
  • bid1339¢
  • bid519¢
  • bid308¢
  • bid1,2538¢
  • bid458¢
  • bid848¢
  • bid537¢
  • bid997¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States adds another state before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 13, 2024 · 6:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSTATE-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Trump add a 51st state to the US?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 32% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
24h ago13¢11bought yes
24h ago9¢11bought no
3d ago8¢0.85bought no
3d ago8¢1.08bought no
4d ago9¢2bought yes
4d ago9¢8.84bought yes
5d ago8¢11bought no
5d ago8¢1.67bought no
6d ago10¢0.99bought yes
7d ago11¢0.85bought yes
7d ago8¢11bought no
7d ago9¢3.26bought no
7d ago9¢9.72bought no
7d ago9¢11bought no
7d ago8¢21bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.