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Super Ballon d'Or·closes in 40mo

Will a Super Ballon d'Or be awarded before 2030?

YES means Super Ballon d'Or awarded

24h volume
0
1,399 lifetime
Open interest
699
Spread
54¢
5 × 74 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
46%

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
54%

costs 56¢

YES bid / ask
44¢ / 98¢
NO bid / ask
2¢ / 56¢
Recent buying48% YES · 52% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,09799¢
  • ask7498¢
spread54¢mid 71¢
  • bid544¢
  • bid541¢
  • bid10039¢
  • bid10035¢
  • bid10030¢
  • bid9024¢
  • bid1018¢
  • bid59117¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any person is awarded a Super Ballon d'Or before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

If any individual is awarded a Super Ballon d'Or before Jan 1, 2030 the market will resolve Yes. If no award is given by the date the market will resolve No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 25 · 4:18 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSUPERBALLONDOR-30-YES
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 48% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago46¢7.26bought no
3d ago47¢18bought no
5d ago54¢18bought yes
6d ago55¢7.26bought yes
7d ago55¢1.76bought yes
12d ago55¢18bought yes
13d ago55¢1.76bought yes
18d ago46¢5.68bought no
21d ago48¢2.05bought no
24d ago55¢9.14bought yes
27d ago45¢8.1bought no
28d ago47¢2.05bought yes
29d ago45¢1.76bought no
30d ago46¢1.79bought no
1mo ago60¢81bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.