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Next Swedish Prime Minister·closes in 16mo

Will Magdalena Andersson become Prime Minister of Sweden following the 2026 Swedish general election?

YES means Magdalena Andersson

24h volume
1,451
47.3k lifetime
Open interest
18.1k
−1,746 over 7d
Spread
2¢
2 × 9.96 at the touch
24h range
86¢ – 91¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
86%−3

A YES contract costs 87¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
14%

costs 15¢

YES bid / ask
85¢ / 87¢
NO bid / ask
13¢ / 15¢
24h low 86¢24h high 91¢
Recent buying87% YES · 13% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢90¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8,12594¢
  • ask80093¢
  • ask82592¢
  • ask3,92591¢
  • ask2,81590¢
  • ask2,00089¢
  • ask2,07588¢
  • ask9.9687¢
spread2¢mid 86¢
  • bid285¢
  • bid12084¢
  • bid2,02183¢
  • bid2,82082¢
  • bid81081¢
  • bid81080¢
  • bid81079¢
  • bid80078¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Magdalena Andersson becomes Prime Minister of Sweden as a result of government formation following the 2026 Swedish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Jan 1, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 8 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSWEDENPM-26SEP13-MAND
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 87% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10h ago86¢1bought no
10h ago86¢1.59bought no
10h ago86¢1bought no
10h ago86¢1bought no
10h ago86¢2bought no
10h ago86¢1bought no
10h ago87¢1,348bought yes
10h ago87¢5bought yes
10h ago87¢5bought yes
10h ago86¢44bought yes
10h ago86¢6bought yes
12h ago86¢0.75bought yes
12h ago86¢5bought yes
17h ago86¢3bought no
17h ago86¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.