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Next Swedish Prime Minister·closes in 16mo

Will Ulf Kristersson become Prime Minister of Sweden following the 2026 Swedish general election?

YES means Ulf Kristersson

24h volume
3,654
69.4k lifetime
Open interest
37.1k
Spread
1¢
38 × 150 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
11%+2

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
89%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 88¢
Recent buying53% YES · 47% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask80021¢
  • ask80020¢
  • ask81319¢
  • ask80018¢
  • ask3,88516¢
  • ask2,00015¢
  • ask3,54614¢
  • ask15013¢
spread1¢mid 13¢
  • bid3812¢
  • bid2,83711¢
  • bid2,80010¢
  • bid2,8009¢
  • bid8008¢
  • bid1,0177¢
  • bid9666¢
  • bid2355¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ulf Kristersson becomes Prime Minister of Sweden as a result of government formation following the 2026 Swedish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Jan 1, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 8 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSWEDENPM-26SEP13-UKRI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 53% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago12¢4.44bought no
4h ago12¢3bought no
4h ago12¢24bought no
4h ago11¢16bought no
7h ago15¢12bought yes
7h ago15¢27bought yes
7h ago16¢415bought yes
9h ago14¢28bought yes
9h ago14¢3bought yes
9h ago15¢729bought yes
9h ago15¢500bought yes
11h ago11¢50bought no
11h ago11¢50bought no
11h ago11¢50bought no
11h ago11¢50bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.