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Taiwanese Local Elections winner·closes in 14mo

Will Democratic Progressive Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections?

YES means Democratic Progressive Party

24h volume
11
1,323 lifetime
Open interest
718
Spread
6¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
25 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask
14¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 86¢
Recent buying54% YES · 46% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3989¢
  • ask153¢
  • ask18651¢
  • ask10050¢
  • ask20024¢
  • ask2123¢
  • ask521¢
  • ask520¢
spread6¢mid 17¢
  • bid20014¢
  • bid715¢
  • bid533¢
  • bid4132¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Progressive Party wins the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 8 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTAIWANLOCAL-26NOV28-DPP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 25 trades, 54% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
17h ago15¢2bought no
17h ago15¢4bought no
17h ago17¢5bought no
1d ago15¢15bought no
1d ago16¢19bought no
1d ago16¢19bought no
1d ago21¢128bought yes
1d ago18¢96bought yes
1d ago17¢10bought yes
1d ago15¢200bought no
1d ago16¢10bought no
1d ago21¢156bought yes
1d ago20¢2bought yes
1d ago21¢79bought yes
1d ago16¢2bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.