galdor.xyz
Admin
Taiwanese Local Elections winner·closes in 14mo

Will Kuomintang win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections?

YES means Kuomintang

24h volume
0
4,480 lifetime
Open interest
2,547
+2,330 over 90d
Spread
8¢
15 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
26 recent trades
Chance of YES
86%

A YES contract costs 83¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
14%

costs 25¢

YES bid / ask
75¢ / 83¢
NO bid / ask
17¢ / 25¢
Recent buying98% YES · 2% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢volJul 8Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask37098¢
  • ask4497¢
  • ask7295¢
  • ask1494¢
  • ask1886¢
  • ask20084¢
  • ask583¢
spread8¢mid 79¢
  • bid1575¢
  • bid20074¢
  • bid10052¢
  • bid5438¢
  • bid25837¢
  • bid42925¢
  • bid61324¢
  • bid8411¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Kuomintang wins the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 8 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTAIWANLOCAL-26NOV28-KMT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 26 trades, 98% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago86¢0.95bought no
1d ago86¢19bought no
1d ago83¢15bought yes
1d ago86¢9.05bought no
1d ago86¢0.95bought no
1d ago86¢0.95bought no
1d ago86¢1.05bought no
1d ago86¢2bought no
14d ago90¢5.51bought yes
18d ago87¢500bought yes
19d ago92¢20bought yes
20d ago89¢500bought yes
20d ago89¢100bought yes
20d ago88¢29bought yes
20d ago88¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.