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Taiwanese Local Elections winner·closes in 14mo

Will Taiwan People’s Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections?

YES means Taiwan People’s Party

24h volume
0
107 lifetime
Open interest
106
+50 over 90d
Spread
4¢
0 × 25 at the touch
24h range
–
2 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 100¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volJul 8Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9399¢
  • ask1587¢
  • ask1,43286¢
  • ask2525¢
  • ask115¢
  • ask2006¢
  • ask254¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the Taiwan People’s Party wins the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 8 · 12:00 AM UTC
    closes
    Nov 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXTAIWANLOCAL-26NOV28-TPP
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 2 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    25d ago1¢50bought no
    1mo ago5¢0.14bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.