Will hemp-derived THC beverages containing 3 milligrams of Total THC be federally legal to sell?·closes in 14mo

Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell on Nov 22, 2027?

YES means On Nov 22, 2027

24h volume
0
1,405 lifetime
Open interest
718
Spread
200 × 3.59 at the touch
24h range
23 recent trades
Chance of YES
69%

A YES contract costs 71¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
31%

costs 33¢

YES bid / ask
67¢ / 71¢
NO bid / ask
29¢ / 33¢
Recent buying98% YES · 2% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20093¢
  • ask24988¢
  • ask4087¢
  • ask12286¢
  • ask13985¢
  • ask20076¢
  • ask10072¢
  • ask3.5971¢
spreadmid 69¢
  • bid20067¢
  • bid21435¢
  • bid153
  • bid200
  • bid4,171
  • bid2,400
  • bid3,880
  • bid2,000
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If, as of the end of Nov 22, 2027, a hemp-derived beverage enclosed in a 12-fluid-ounce container that contains exactly 3 milligrams of naturally produced delta-9 THC (and no other cannabinoids) is treated under federal law as lawful to sell, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying for this Contract evaluates the federal legal status of a beverage that: is enclosed for retail sale in a single sealed 12-fluid-ounce (355-milliliter) container; contains exactly 3 milligrams of tetrahydrocannabinol in that container, all of which is delta-9 tetrahydrocannabinol naturally produced by, and derived directly from, a Cannabis sativa L. plant qualifying as hemp under 7 U.S.C. § 1639o as in effect on January 1, 2025, and none of which is synthesized or manufactured outside the plant; and contains no tetrahydrocannabinolic acid, no other cannabinoid of any kind, and no other substance listed in any schedule of the Controlled Substances Act. The market resolves to Yes if, as of the end of Nov 22, 2027, at least one of conditions (a) through (d) is satisfied: (a) Statutory and regulatory status: Under the federal statutes and federal regulations in legal effect, the beverage is not a controlled substance in any schedule of the Controlled Substances Act. (b) Judicial relief: One or more orders of a federal court of the United States are in full force and effect that bar the enforcement of the amendments made by Section 781 of Public Law 119-37, or of the CSA’s treatment of the beverage as a controlled substance, with respect to the entire class of products and with effect throughout the United States. (c) Funding prohibition: Enacted federal legislation prohibits the use of federal funds to implement, administer, carry out, or enforce the amendments made by Section 781, or the Controlled Substances Act, with respect to the retail sale of the beverage throughout the United States. (d) Express authorization: Enacted federal legislation expressly authorizes or makes lawful the retail sale, in interstate commerce, of the beverage. Only statutes, regulations, and court orders in legal effect as of the end of Nov 22, 2027 shall be considered. None of the following, standing alone, is sufficient to resolve to Yes: State, local, territorial, and tribal laws; Federal enforcement discretion, deprioritization policies, or non-binding agency guidance; Proposed rules; Federal court orders granting relief limited to particular parties, plaintiffs, products, sellers, or geographic areas; Funding prohibitions that have lapsed or expired; and Regulation of the beverage under any body of federal law other than the CSA (e.g., FDA food and beverage regulation).

opened
Aug 25 · 8:45 PM UTC
closes
Nov 23, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 20, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC
ticker
KXTHCLEGALSALE3MG-FED-27NOV22
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 23 trades, 98% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12d ago69¢1.41bought yes
19d ago72¢5bought no
19d ago42¢11bought no
19d ago76¢0.01bought yes
19d ago76¢26bought yes
22d ago75¢65bought yes
22d ago67¢100bought yes
22d ago69¢20bought yes
23d ago61¢12bought no
25d ago50¢2bought no
25d ago39¢32bought yes
25d ago39¢37bought yes
25d ago39¢43bought yes
25d ago39¢38bought yes
25d ago39¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.