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Who will launch a token this year? ·closes in 3mo

Will CME Group launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means CME Group

24h volume
0
1,929 lifetime
Open interest
445
Spread
6¢
5 × 4.73 at the touch
24h range
–
10 recent trades
Chance of YES
17%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
83%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 90¢
Recent buying62% YES · 38% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2580¢
  • ask20965¢
  • ask59363¢
  • ask4062¢
  • ask2953¢
  • ask47452¢
  • ask20017¢
  • ask4.7316¢
spread6¢mid 13¢
  • bid510¢
  • bid2009¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If CME Group launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing. This includes ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, migrations from testnet to mainnet, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens that become transferable with market value. NOT included: future launch announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, or points that will convert after the deadline.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 4 · 8:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 6:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXTOKENLAUNCH-27JAN01-CME
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 10 trades, 62% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago17¢0.53bought yes
7d ago11¢4.73bought no
8d ago11¢0.53bought no
11d ago19¢2.63bought yes
1mo ago19¢15bought no
1mo ago19¢6.41bought no
1mo ago20¢4.73bought yes
1mo ago21¢6.09bought yes
1mo ago20¢25bought yes
1mo ago20¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.