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How low will Trump's approval get this year?·closes in 2mo

Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?

YES means Below 35%

24h volume
4,155
79.0k lifetime
Open interest
32.4k
Spread
1¢
14 × 66 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
36%−5

A YES contract costs 37¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
64%

costs 64¢

YES bid / ask
36¢ / 37¢
NO bid / ask
63¢ / 64¢
Recent buying5% YES · 95% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 35%, then the market resolves to Yes.

In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 11, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 7, 2027 · 12:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2027 · 12:00 PM UTC
cap
35
ticker
KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-35
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 5% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7m ago36¢0.01bought no
7m ago36¢21bought no
7m ago36¢12bought no
53m ago37¢26bought yes
1h ago37¢0.34bought yes
1h ago37¢26bought yes
2h ago37¢0.05bought yes
3h ago37¢26bought yes
3h ago36¢6.12bought no
5h ago38¢12bought yes
5h ago37¢13bought yes
5h ago37¢14bought yes
5h ago36¢6.28bought no
6h ago39¢10bought no
6h ago35¢25bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.