galdor.xyz
Admin
How low will Trump's approval get this year?·closes in 2mo

Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?

YES means Below 36%

24h volume
1,323
98.4k lifetime
Open interest
28.2k
+6,826 over 90d
Spread
2¢
235 × 1.03 at the touch
24h range
75¢ – 82¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
75%−4

A YES contract costs 77¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
25%

costs 25¢

YES bid / ask
75¢ / 77¢
NO bid / ask
23¢ / 25¢
24h low 75¢24h high 82¢
Recent buying5% YES · 95% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volAug 7Nov 4

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9985¢
  • ask6284¢
  • ask1683¢
  • ask50081¢
  • ask1,00480¢
  • ask7879¢
  • ask1478¢
  • ask1.0377¢
spread2¢mid 76¢
  • bid23575¢
  • bid1,00274¢
  • bid26669¢
  • bid50068¢
  • bid1367¢
  • bid50066¢
  • bid2052¢
  • bid2348¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 36%, then the market resolves to Yes.

In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 11, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 7, 2027 · 12:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2027 · 12:00 PM UTC
cap
36
ticker
KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-36
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 5% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5m ago76¢3.65bought no
5m ago75¢16bought no
5m ago76¢0.63bought no
5m ago75¢3.3bought no
2h ago78¢1.26bought yes
5h ago76¢4.28bought no
5h ago75¢85bought no
5h ago75¢4bought no
5h ago75¢1.72bought no
5h ago76¢1.08bought no
5h ago76¢7.84bought no
5h ago77¢0.25bought no
5h ago76¢2bought no
5h ago76¢3bought no
5h ago76¢2.63bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.