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How low will Trump's approval get this year?·closed · YES

Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 37% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?

YES means Below 37%

Below 35% is 26¢ and below 33% is 10¢. The upside market has 'above 45%' at just 7¢, down from 16¢. The band is narrow and drifting down.
Our read · Sep 20, 2026 · 3 PM ET
24h volume
0
69.0k lifetime
Open interest
18.5k
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
99%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
1%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO

This market is closed and resolved YES. Prices shown are the last ones traded.

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 37%, then the market resolves to Yes.

In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 11, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 2 · 2:02 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2027 · 12:00 PM UTC
cap
37
ticker
KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-37
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago99¢10bought no
1mo ago100¢25bought no
1mo ago99¢33bought no
1mo ago99¢28bought no
1mo ago99¢0.9bought yes
1mo ago99¢56bought yes
1mo ago99¢10bought yes
1mo ago99¢30bought yes
1mo ago99¢0.55bought yes
1mo ago99¢50bought yes
1mo ago99¢50bought yes
1mo ago99¢50bought yes
1mo ago99¢50bought yes
1mo ago99¢1bought yes
1mo ago99¢15bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.