Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Bill Hwang receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Bill Hwang

24h volume: 0; 284 lifetime
Open interest: 163; +90 over 90d
Spread: 93¢; 5 × 200 at the touch
24h range: 8¢ – 43¢; 2 recent trades

Chance of YES

A YES contract costs 99¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

92%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask

6¢ / 99¢

NO bid / ask

1¢ / 94¢

24h low 8¢24h high 43¢

Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask2,000100¢
ask201100¢
ask20099¢

spread93¢mid 53¢

bid56¢
bid26¢
bid1401¢
bid2001¢
bid6160¢
bid2,0000¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Bill Hwang has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

opened: Jan 23 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BHWA

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
2mo ago	8¢	1	bought no
2mo ago	43¢	1	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.