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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Marco Rubio receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Marco Rubio

24h volume
0
5,008 lifetime
Open interest
3,351
+0 over 7d
Spread
3¢
15 × 105 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
37%

A YES contract costs 36¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
63%

costs 67¢

YES bid / ask
33¢ / 36¢
NO bid / ask
64¢ / 67¢
Recent buying15% YES · 85% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10085¢
  • ask76582¢
  • ask81671¢
  • ask70770¢
  • ask49469¢
  • ask3764¢
  • ask5262¢
  • ask10536¢
spread3¢mid 35¢
  • bid1533¢
  • bid1016¢
  • bid41415¢
  • bid16711¢
  • bid23910¢
  • bid346¢
  • bid1,5215¢
  • bid2501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Marco Rubio has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 11 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-MRUB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 15% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
17d ago36¢1.35bought yes
17d ago37¢1.26bought yes
18d ago36¢2.65bought yes
27d ago36¢1bought yes
1mo ago33¢5bought no
1mo ago25¢500bought no
1mo ago16¢48bought no
1mo ago15¢86bought no
2mo ago34¢2.95bought no
2mo ago35¢250bought no
2mo ago35¢250bought no
2mo ago39¢198bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.