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Who will Trump pardon?·closes in 28mo

Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Sam Bankman-Fried

24h volume
0
17.4k lifetime
Open interest
4,147
+0 over 24h
Spread
5¢
5 × 13 at the touch
24h range
–
37 recent trades
Chance of YES
33%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
67%

costs 70¢

YES bid / ask
30¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 70¢
Recent buying23% YES · 77% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢30¢35¢40¢volSep 20, 4:18 AMSep 20, 10:42 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4460¢
  • ask13759¢
  • ask1655¢
  • ask150¢
  • ask2049¢
  • ask145¢
  • ask1040¢
  • ask1335¢
spread5¢mid 32¢
  • bid530¢
  • bid1.5729¢
  • bid5027¢
  • bid1025¢
  • bid91224¢
  • bid10023¢
  • bid536¢
  • bid5506¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Sam Bankman-Fried has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SBF
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 37 trades, 23% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago33¢8bought no
4d ago32¢3.09bought no
6d ago32¢29bought no
6d ago34¢100bought no
6d ago34¢100bought no
10d ago34¢4.12bought no
15d ago35¢0.81bought yes
18d ago32¢2.65bought no
19d ago32¢4.5bought no
22d ago33¢4.5bought no
22d ago34¢100bought no
27d ago34¢5bought no
29d ago35¢20bought no
1mo ago34¢5.69bought no
1mo ago35¢70bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.