Trump recess appointment·closes in 28mo

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that President Donald Trump makes a recess appointment before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 21, 2029

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
+0 over 30d
Spread
95¢
5 × 35 at the touch
24h range
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
/ 98¢
NO bid / ask
/ 97¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask3598¢
spread95¢mid 51¢
  • bid5
  • bid35
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If President Donald Trump makes a recess appointment after Issuance and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. A recess appointment means an appointment to a position that would otherwise require Senate confirmation, made using the power given to the President in the recess appointments clause (Article II, Section 2, Clause 3) of the Constitution. One appointee is enough. If an appointment is later ruled illegal by the Supreme Court of the United States, or another federal court, this market's resolution will not change. An acting official designated under the Federal Vacancies Reform Act does NOT count.

opened
Aug 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 28, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPRECESSAPPT-29-29JAN21
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.