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Trump run for a third term·closes in 16mo

Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
445
42.8k lifetime
Open interest
14.6k
+41 over 7d
Spread
9¢
15 × 403 at the touch
24h range
14¢ – 19¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%−1

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 89¢
24h low 14¢24h high 19¢
Recent buying32% YES · 68% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3474¢
  • ask68472¢
  • ask1,22361¢
  • ask1,30759¢
  • ask12858¢
  • ask6845¢
  • ask34323¢
  • ask40320¢
spread9¢mid 15¢
  • bid1511¢
  • bid1,00010¢
  • bid508¢
  • bid224¢
  • bid213¢
  • bid593¢
  • bid1,1293¢
  • bid6,6663¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 25, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPRUN-28JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 32% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13h ago14¢267bought no
13h ago15¢78bought no
13h ago19¢100bought no
4d ago15¢59bought no
5d ago20¢5bought yes
6d ago19¢134bought yes
6d ago20¢89bought yes
8d ago18¢100bought yes
8d ago18¢50bought yes
8d ago19¢4.4bought yes
10d ago15¢28bought no
10d ago15¢25bought no
10d ago15¢63bought no
10d ago19¢3.1bought yes
10d ago19¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.