Trump run for a third term·closes in 16mo

Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume: 445; 42.8k lifetime
Open interest: 14.6k; +4,169 over 90d
Spread: 9¢; 15 × 403 at the touch
24h range: 11¢ – 45¢

Chance of YES

14%−1

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

86%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask

11¢ / 20¢

NO bid / ask

80¢ / 89¢

24h low 11¢24h high 45¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask1,37770¢
ask7968¢
ask1,42767¢
ask7266¢
ask452¢
ask6845¢
ask34323¢
ask40320¢

spread9¢mid 15¢

bid1511¢
bid1,00010¢
bid508¢
bid224¢
bid213¢
bid593¢
bid1,1293¢
bid6,6663¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources

opened: Oct 25, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXTRUMPRUN-28JAN01

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.