Tesla KPI·closes in 19mo

Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.75 million total deliveries in 2026?

YES means Above 1.75 million

24h volume
165
13.0k lifetime
Open interest
2,560
Spread
13 × 200 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
56%17

A YES contract costs 60¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
44%

costs 44¢

YES bid / ask
56¢ / 60¢
NO bid / ask
40¢ / 44¢
Recent buying65% YES · 35% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask13199¢
  • ask10098¢
  • ask13595¢
  • ask1488¢
  • ask1082¢
  • ask28480¢
  • ask2775¢
  • ask20060¢
spreadmid 58¢
  • bid1356¢
  • bid1855¢
  • bid20054¢
  • bid553¢
  • bid10040¢
  • bid6929¢
  • bid16628¢
  • bid39227¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tesla Inc. reports Above 1750000.0 total deliveries in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 9 · 10:17 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2028 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2028 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
1750000
ticker
KXTSLAA-28JANDEL-1750000.0
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 65% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago56¢150bought yes
2h ago55¢15bought yes
1d ago73¢2.68bought yes
2d ago71¢1bought yes
2d ago72¢13bought yes
2d ago60¢200bought yes
2d ago59¢1.6bought no
3d ago64¢1.6bought yes
4d ago58¢1.59bought no
4d ago61¢1.59bought yes
5d ago56¢4bought no
5d ago55¢13bought no
6d ago53¢34bought no
6d ago54¢1.64bought no
6d ago52¢1.64bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.