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Tesla KPI·closes in 19mo

Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.85 million total deliveries in 2026?

YES means Above 1.85 million

24h volume
194
1,193 lifetime
Open interest
541
+0 over 24h
Spread
5¢
15 × 200 at the touch
24h range
18¢ – 19¢
7 recent trades
Chance of YES
18%−9

A YES contract costs 21¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
82%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 21¢
NO bid / ask
79¢ / 84¢
24h low 18¢24h high 19¢
Recent buying62% YES · 38% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 20, 5:43 AMSep 21, 4:31 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4597¢
  • ask3695¢
  • ask1394¢
  • ask1081¢
  • ask38776¢
  • ask7968¢
  • ask7067¢
  • ask20021¢
spread5¢mid 19¢
  • bid1516¢
  • bid20015¢
  • bid369¢
  • bid2005¢
  • bid1023¢
  • bid6972¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tesla Inc. reports Above 1850000.0 total deliveries in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 9 · 10:17 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2028 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2028 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
1850000
ticker
KXTSLAA-28JANDEL-1850000.0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 7 trades, 62% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago19¢5bought no
1h ago18¢189bought no
20d ago27¢194bought yes
1mo ago27¢18bought yes
2mo ago21¢22bought yes
2mo ago21¢10bought yes
2mo ago22¢68bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.