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Tesla KPI·closes in 19mo

Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.8 million total production in 2026?

YES means Above 1.8 million

24h volume
0
1,283 lifetime
Open interest
1,155
Spread
8¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
24 recent trades
Chance of YES
70%

A YES contract costs 74¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
30%

costs 34¢

YES bid / ask
66¢ / 74¢
NO bid / ask
26¢ / 34¢
Recent buying90% YES · 10% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask88698¢
  • ask5697¢
  • ask4695¢
  • ask3394¢
  • ask3693¢
  • ask20875¢
  • ask574¢
spread8¢mid 70¢
  • bid566¢
  • bid62365¢
  • bid5434¢
  • bid38133¢
  • bid1,06830¢
  • bid1,04328¢
  • bid23012¢
  • bid1,00611¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tesla Inc. reports Above 1800000.0 total production in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 9 · 10:17 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2028 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2028 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
1800000
ticker
KXTSLAA-28JANPROD-1800000.0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 24 trades, 90% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago70¢49bought yes
6d ago65¢7.46bought no
6d ago66¢5bought no
6d ago65¢36bought no
8d ago65¢5.46bought no
8d ago58¢77bought yes
8d ago63¢200bought yes
8d ago62¢4.2bought yes
10d ago53¢3.34bought no
16d ago58¢4.2bought yes
16d ago58¢8.37bought yes
26d ago50¢33bought no
26d ago51¢1bought no
1mo ago58¢1bought yes
1mo ago58¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.