Winner of next Turkish presidential election·closes in 44mo

Who will win the next Turkish presidential election?

YES means Ahmet Davutoğlu

24h volume: 0; 1,191 lifetime
Open interest: 374; +0 over 90d
Spread: 6¢; 335 × 201 at the touch
24h range: –

Chance of YES

11%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

89%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask

5¢ / 11¢

NO bid / ask

89¢ / 95¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask1,000100¢
ask10.1k99¢
ask2,53197¢
ask3,40892¢
ask25091¢
ask30045¢
ask140¢
ask20111¢

spread6¢mid 8¢

bid3355¢
bid2003¢
bid1402¢
bid4,2280¢
bid1,0000¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ahmet Davutoğlu wins the next Turkish presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

opened: Apr 1, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: May 7, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: May 8, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXTURKEYPRES-28-ADAV

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 88¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.