Who will be cast in show·closes in 16mo

Will Gavin Casalegno be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

YES means Gavin Casalegno

24h volume: 0; 0 lifetime
Open interest: 0
Spread: 92¢; 5 × 140 at the touch
24h range: –

Chance of YES

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

100%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask

6¢ / 98¢

NO bid / ask

2¢ / 94¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask14098¢

spread92¢mid 52¢

bid56¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Gavin Casalegno is cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

opened: Aug 19 · 8:52 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXTVCAST-FOL28-GCAS

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.