galdor.xyz
Admin
Texas Senate outcome combo·closes in 16mo

Will GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton AND General Election Winner be Republican for Jan 2027?

YES means Paxton defeats Talarico

24h volume
3,258
175.4k lifetime
Open interest
109.1k
+185 over 24h
Spread
2¢
392 × 634 at the touch
24h range
41¢ – 44¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
41%−3

A YES contract costs 43¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
59%

costs 59¢

YES bid / ask
41¢ / 43¢
NO bid / ask
57¢ / 59¢
24h low 41¢24h high 44¢
Recent buying15% YES · 85% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
35¢40¢45¢50¢volSep 20, 12:19 PMSep 21, 4:14 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,51851¢
  • ask2,17450¢
  • ask4,47048¢
  • ask19547¢
  • ask50046¢
  • ask1,00045¢
  • ask1,35144¢
  • ask63443¢
spread2¢mid 42¢
  • bid39241¢
  • bid9440¢
  • bid50039¢
  • bid65038¢
  • bid65931¢
  • bid15021¢
  • bid7.4720¢
  • bid3219¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If ALL of the following occur before Jan 2027: GOP Nominee: Ken Paxton, General Election Winner: Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: GOP Nominee (SENATEPARTYNOM), General Election Winner (SENATEPARTY). All conditions must be satisfied before Jan 2027.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 3, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 3, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTXSENOUTCOME-27JAN-PAXTAL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 15% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago41¢7.62bought no
6h ago43¢25bought yes
6h ago43¢22bought yes
6h ago43¢2.97bought yes
7h ago43¢3,000bought no
7h ago43¢189bought no
17h ago44¢11bought yes
1d ago44¢44bought yes
1d ago44¢109bought yes
2d ago44¢11bought yes
2d ago44¢28bought yes
2d ago43¢10bought no
2d ago44¢55bought yes
2d ago44¢4.37bought yes
2d ago44¢11bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.