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Texas Senate outcome combo·closes in 16mo

Will GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027?

YES means Talarico defeats Paxton

24h volume
757
120.0k lifetime
Open interest
73.1k
+3.61 over 24h
Spread
4¢
91 × 591 at the touch
24h range
55¢ – 60¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
56%−2

A YES contract costs 60¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
44%

costs 44¢

YES bid / ask
56¢ / 60¢
NO bid / ask
40¢ / 44¢
24h low 55¢24h high 60¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢55¢60¢65¢volSep 20, 6:36 AMSep 21, 5:21 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10172¢
  • ask2069¢
  • ask50068¢
  • ask1,00066¢
  • ask20065¢
  • ask40064¢
  • ask27263¢
  • ask59160¢
spread4¢mid 58¢
  • bid9156¢
  • bid7155¢
  • bid1,71454¢
  • bid2,11353¢
  • bid3,10351¢
  • bid26650¢
  • bid27749¢
  • bid10.0k48¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If ALL of the following occur before Jan 2027: GOP Nominee: Ken Paxton, General Election Winner: Democrat, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: GOP Nominee (SENATEPARTYNOM), General Election Winner (SENATEPARTY). All conditions must be satisfied before Jan 2027.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 3, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 3, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTXSENOUTCOME-27JAN-TALPAX
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
59m ago56¢14bought no
59m ago56¢5bought no
8h ago60¢8.1bought yes
8h ago58¢11bought yes
8h ago58¢5bought yes
8h ago59¢650bought yes
12h ago55¢21bought no
12h ago58¢8.37bought yes
13h ago58¢5.51bought yes
13h ago58¢28bought yes
1d ago58¢33bought yes
1d ago55¢39bought no
1d ago55¢52bought no
1d ago55¢5bought no
1d ago59¢0.01bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.