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Unemployment·closed · YES

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in September?

YES means Above 4.1%

24h volume
0
34.2k lifetime
Open interest
15.3k
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
36%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
64%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
Recent buying47% YES · 53% NO

This market is closed and resolved YES. Prices shown are the last ones traded.

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 6 · 5:55 PM UTC
closes
Oct 2 · 12:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 2 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
4.1
ticker
KXU3-26SEP-T4.1
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 47% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago36¢5bought yes
1mo ago36¢22bought yes
1mo ago36¢12bought yes
1mo ago36¢14bought yes
1mo ago36¢67bought yes
1mo ago32¢5bought no
1mo ago33¢19bought no
1mo ago36¢19bought yes
1mo ago37¢13bought yes
1mo ago37¢0.44bought yes
1mo ago37¢13bought yes
1mo ago36¢2bought yes
1mo ago37¢0.62bought yes
1mo ago36¢13bought yes
1mo ago33¢44bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.