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U.S. unemployment rate at year-end·closes in 4mo

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 be above 5.0%?

YES means Above 5.0%

24h volume
0
1,912 lifetime
Open interest
1,619
+0 over 24h
Spread
35¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 40¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 40¢
NO bid / ask
60¢ / 95¢
Recent buying4% YES · 96% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 20, 7:03 AMSep 21, 5:47 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20099¢
  • ask1,44197¢
  • ask32396¢
  • ask10044¢
  • ask1043¢
  • ask540¢
spread35¢mid 23¢
  • bid55¢
  • bid3234¢
  • bid8573¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 is above 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

“Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31. The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for December 2026. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions will not affect the outcome.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 3 · 1:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2027 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 15, 2027 · 1:30 PM UTC
floor
5
ticker
KXU3EOY-27JAN08-T5.0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 4% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago7¢9bought no
2d ago5¢143bought no
3d ago7¢0.43bought no
14d ago13¢200bought no
14d ago14¢10bought no
15d ago14¢53bought no
15d ago18¢26bought yes
16d ago18¢53bought yes
16d ago16¢300bought no
16d ago21¢100bought no
17d ago21¢400bought no
17d ago21¢200bought no
17d ago20¢9bought no
17d ago22¢9.43bought no
18d ago39¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.