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Unemployment spike·closes in 4mo

How high will unemployment get before 2027?

YES means Above 8%

24h volume
0
20.9k lifetime
Open interest
10.1k
+1,385 over 7d
Spread
2¢
2.83 × 1.65 at the touch
24h range
–
13 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 98¢
Recent buying94% YES · 6% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask696¢
  • ask1,7276¢
  • ask716¢
  • ask5,0005¢
  • ask675¢
  • ask295¢
  • ask274¢
  • ask1.654¢
spread2¢mid 3¢
  • bid2.832¢
  • bid8.492¢
  • bid142¢
  • bid161¢
  • bid5601¢
  • bid260¢
  • bid1,0280¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 8%, the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 5 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2027 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
8
ticker
KXU3MAX-27-8
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 13 trades, 94% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago3¢15bought no
4d ago3¢17bought yes
4d ago3¢1,403bought yes
5d ago1¢2.83bought no
5d ago1¢3.11bought no
9d ago3¢5.94bought yes
21d ago1¢5.01bought no
21d ago1¢10bought no
21d ago1¢10bought no
21d ago1¢10bought no
21d ago1¢31bought no
28d ago4¢5.36bought yes
28d ago4¢16bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.