Unemployment spike·closes in 40mo

How high will unemployment get before 2030?

YES means Above 5%

24h volume
0
1,674 lifetime
Open interest
185
−24 over 90d
Spread
12 × 9 at the touch
24h range
88¢ – 98¢
2 recent trades
Chance of YES
94%

A YES contract costs 93¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
6%

costs 12¢

YES bid / ask
88¢ / 93¢
NO bid / ask
/ 12¢
24h low 88¢24h high 98¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

80¢85¢90¢95¢100¢volJun 23Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U-3 unemployment rate from June 2025 to January 2030 is above 5%, the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 4, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 4, 2030 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
5
ticker
KXU3MAX-30-5
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago94¢60bought yes
2mo ago88¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.