Unemployment spike·closes in 40mo

How high will unemployment get before 2030?

YES means Above 6%

24h volume
0
723 lifetime
Open interest
263
Spread
1,015 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
3 recent trades
Chance of YES
87%

A YES contract costs 87¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
13%

costs 20¢

YES bid / ask
80¢ / 87¢
NO bid / ask
13¢ / 20¢
Recent buying16% YES · 84% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00087¢
spreadmid 84¢
  • bid1,01580¢
  • bid1075¢
  • bid1,05846¢
  • bid1043¢
  • bid16
  • bid35
  • bid43
  • bid1,000
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 6%, the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 4, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 4, 2030 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
6
ticker
KXU3MAX-30-6
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 3 trades, 16% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago87¢1.13bought yes
19d ago80¢11bought no
2mo ago88¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.