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UFC Fighter to Compete in a Fight·closes in 16mo

Will Conor McGregor compete in an officially sanctioned UFC fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Conor McGregor

24h volume
33
10.2k lifetime
Open interest
2,922
+2,709 over 90d
Spread
21¢
22 × 5.69 at the touch
24h range
40¢ – 42¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
41%+8

A YES contract costs 62¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
59%

costs 59¢

YES bid / ask
41¢ / 62¢
NO bid / ask
38¢ / 59¢
24h low 40¢24h high 42¢
Recent buying62% YES · 38% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volJul 13Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask35382¢
  • ask9080¢
  • ask6275¢
  • ask6474¢
  • ask2569¢
  • ask1565¢
  • ask1563¢
  • ask5.6962¢
spread21¢mid 52¢
  • bid2241¢
  • bid5840¢
  • bid2726¢
  • bid9925¢
  • bid2121¢
  • bid20120¢
  • bid28519¢
  • bid35518¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Conor McGregor competes in an officially sanctioned UFC fight after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the UFC. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 12 · 9:41 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUFCFIGHTOCCUR-28JANMCG-Y
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Conor McGregor to fight again before 2028.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 62% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago42¢5bought no
4h ago41¢12bought no
19h ago40¢16bought no
1d ago33¢1.79bought no
1d ago33¢6.3bought no
1d ago34¢1bought no
1d ago72¢1.31bought yes
1d ago33¢1.31bought no
1d ago33¢7.29bought no
1d ago32¢66bought no
1d ago33¢6bought no
1d ago34¢5bought no
1d ago33¢2.44bought no
1d ago49¢6bought yes
2d ago44¢8.66bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.