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UK Cabinet departures·closes in 16mo

Will Alan Campbell be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

YES means Alan Campbell

24h volume
0
3,623 lifetime
Open interest
1,003
+1,003 over 90d
Spread
6¢
2.74 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 99¢
Recent buying34% YES · 66% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask40081¢
  • ask9356¢
  • ask9252¢
  • ask28451¢
  • ask20150¢
  • ask345¢
  • ask2008¢
  • ask57¢
spread6¢mid 4¢
  • bid2.741¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alan Campbell is the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

A member leaves the Cabinet upon the qualifying announcement of their resignation, dismissal, removal, non-reappointment, or other formal cessation of Cabinet membership. A change of portfolio or position within the Cabinet alone does not count. If two or more members leave on the same calendar date and the Source Agencies do not establish a clear chronological order, the tied member markets settle according to the Contract's split-settlement provisions. If no eligible member leaves during the specified period, all member markets resolve to No. A temporary absence or leave where the member is expected to resume their Cabinet position does not count. Speculative or unconfirmed reports of a departure do not count. If the Prime Minister leaves office or the Cabinet is otherwise dissolved or wholly reconstituted before an individual member satisfies the Payout Criterion, all listed individual-member markets resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 19 · 5:42 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUKCABOUT-BURNN28JAN01-ACAM
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 95¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 34% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
28d ago2¢100bought no
29d ago1¢100bought no
29d ago1¢200bought no
29d ago6¢100bought yes
30d ago6¢2.74bought yes
30d ago3¢200bought yes
30d ago3¢200bought yes
30d ago3¢200bought yes
30d ago3¢420bought yes
30d ago3¢50bought yes
30d ago3¢50bought yes
1mo ago1¢200bought no
1mo ago2¢200bought no
1mo ago2¢100bought no
1mo ago2¢500bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.