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UK Cabinet departures·closes in 16mo

Will Alex Norris be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

YES means Alex Norris

24h volume
0
2,405 lifetime
Open interest
1,001
+0 over 24h
Spread
8¢
0 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
10 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 100¢
Recent buying15% YES · 85% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volSep 20, 8:53 PMSep 20, 11:10 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,72097¢
  • ask1,14584¢
  • ask40083¢
  • ask1882¢
  • ask67255¢
  • ask57554¢
  • ask24445¢
  • ask2008¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Alex Norris is the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    A member leaves the Cabinet upon the qualifying announcement of their resignation, dismissal, removal, non-reappointment, or other formal cessation of Cabinet membership. A change of portfolio or position within the Cabinet alone does not count. If two or more members leave on the same calendar date and the Source Agencies do not establish a clear chronological order, the tied member markets settle according to the Contract's split-settlement provisions. If no eligible member leaves during the specified period, all member markets resolve to No. A temporary absence or leave where the member is expected to resume their Cabinet position does not count. Speculative or unconfirmed reports of a departure do not count. If the Prime Minister leaves office or the Cabinet is otherwise dissolved or wholly reconstituted before an individual member satisfies the Payout Criterion, all listed individual-member markets resolve to No.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Aug 19 · 5:42 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXUKCABOUT-BURNN28JAN01-ANOR
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 95¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 10 trades, 15% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    8d ago2¢52bought no
    9d ago8¢53bought yes
    27d ago4¢100bought yes
    27d ago4¢200bought yes
    1mo ago1¢200bought no
    1mo ago2¢200bought no
    1mo ago2¢100bought no
    1mo ago2¢500bought no
    1mo ago4¢800bought no
    1mo ago4¢200bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.