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Year of the next UK general election·closes in 40mo

Will it be confirmed that 2026 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

YES means 2026

24h volume
0
2,442 lifetime
Open interest
1,936
+1,936 over 30d
Spread
3¢
100 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
18 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 99¢
Recent buying37% YES · 63% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 1Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10099¢
  • ask5398¢
  • ask876¢
  • ask55074¢
  • ask2,54373¢
  • ask2009¢
  • ask8665¢
  • ask1004¢
spread3¢mid 3¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, the claim that 2026 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred has been reported as confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency, then the market resolves to Yes.

Each market's year is determined by the official polling day that actually occurs, not an announced or scheduled date that is later changed. If the official polling day for the next UK general election occurs in a year not listed, every market resolves NO.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 1 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUKGEYEAR-30JAN01-26
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 24¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 18 trades, 37% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago3¢200bought yes
15d ago4¢15bought yes
16d ago3¢5bought no
16d ago3¢5bought no
16d ago3¢5bought no
19d ago3¢266bought yes
19d ago3¢15bought yes
19d ago3¢200bought yes
19d ago3¢200bought yes
19d ago3¢0.01bought yes
20d ago3¢125bought no
20d ago9¢1bought no
20d ago7¢295bought no
20d ago7¢5bought no
20d ago7¢700bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.