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UK elections·closes in 36mo

Will Conservative win the next U.K. election?

YES means Conservative party

24h volume
123
27.8k lifetime
Open interest
8,601
+123 over 7d
Spread
5¢
27 × 189 at the touch
24h range
22¢ – 27¢
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
27%

A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
73%

costs 78¢

YES bid / ask
22¢ / 27¢
NO bid / ask
73¢ / 78¢
24h low 22¢24h high 27¢
Recent buying77% YES · 23% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢30¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,35863¢
  • ask7562¢
  • ask1855¢
  • ask950¢
  • ask6548¢
  • ask2030¢
  • ask1,00028¢
  • ask18927¢
spread5¢mid 25¢
  • bid2722¢
  • bid2521¢
  • bid1,00020¢
  • bid1009¢
  • bid518¢
  • bid135¢
  • bid5505¢
  • bid281¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Conservative party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 4, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Aug 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUKPARTY-29-C
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago27¢88bought yes
4h ago22¢35bought yes
14d ago27¢18bought yes
17d ago27¢25bought yes
17d ago23¢12bought yes
22d ago20¢1,000bought no
22d ago21¢25bought no
1mo ago20¢9bought no
1mo ago20¢1bought no
2mo ago22¢10bought yes
2mo ago21¢1,000bought yes
2mo ago21¢28bought yes
2mo ago20¢250bought yes
2mo ago20¢0.4bought yes
2mo ago20¢967bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.