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UK elections·closes in 36mo

Will Labour win the next U.K. election?

YES means Labour party

24h volume
3
21.4k lifetime
Open interest
8,505
Spread
8¢
1,137 × 1,005 at the touch
24h range
–
49 recent trades
Chance of YES
33%−3

A YES contract costs 41¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
67%

costs 67¢

YES bid / ask
33¢ / 41¢
NO bid / ask
59¢ / 67¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20078¢
  • ask1,21277¢
  • ask15076¢
  • ask5775¢
  • ask4974¢
  • ask2050¢
  • ask3343¢
  • ask1,00541¢
spread8¢mid 37¢
  • bid1,13733¢
  • bid10032¢
  • bid17530¢
  • bid7,50029¢
  • bid422¢
  • bid118¢
  • bid3010¢
  • bid5110¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Labour party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 4, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Aug 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUKPARTY-29-L
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 49 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago33¢3bought no
3d ago37¢5bought no
3d ago36¢1,000bought no
3d ago37¢30bought no
3d ago39¢15bought no
7d ago40¢35bought yes
9d ago41¢567bought yes
10d ago35¢75bought yes
10d ago39¢71bought yes
10d ago36¢10bought yes
14d ago33¢6bought no
14d ago37¢30bought no
15d ago35¢10bought no
15d ago34¢25bought no
15d ago35¢1.83bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.