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UK elections·closes in 36mo

Will Liberal Democratic win the next U.K. election?

YES means Liberal Democratic party

24h volume
0
10.4k lifetime
Open interest
5,799
Spread
1¢
198 × 250 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask177¢
  • ask7527¢
  • ask1,0005¢
  • ask2,5005¢
  • ask2505¢
  • ask9402¢
  • ask7372¢
  • ask2502¢
spread1¢mid 1¢
  • bid1980¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Liberal Democratic party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 4, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Aug 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUKPARTY-29-LD
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.