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UK elections·closes in 36mo

Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election?

YES means Restore Britain party

24h volume
366
101.0k lifetime
Open interest
52.0k
+449 over 7d
Spread
2¢
156 × 52 at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 6¢
41 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 96¢
24h low 2¢24h high 6¢
Recent buying64% YES · 36% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7535¢
  • ask26325¢
  • ask40024¢
  • ask3428¢
  • ask1,5137¢
  • ask1,0007¢
  • ask1,7016¢
  • ask526¢
spread2¢mid 5¢
  • bid1564¢
  • bid292¢
  • bid3282¢
  • bid5502¢
  • bid5,0002¢
  • bid3752¢
  • bid1,8892¢
  • bid1,2501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Restore Britain party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 16 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Aug 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUKPARTY-29-REST
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 41 trades, 64% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12h ago6¢44bought yes
12h ago6¢10bought yes
12h ago4¢20bought no
12h ago4¢54bought no
13h ago4¢102bought no
13h ago4¢54bought no
14h ago2¢82bought no
1d ago6¢240bought yes
1d ago5¢50bought yes
1d ago5¢13bought yes
1d ago3¢46bought no
4d ago3¢26bought no
4d ago3¢0.72bought no
4d ago3¢37bought no
4d ago3¢127bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.