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Will the US acquire new territory?·closes in 3mo

Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 2027

24h volume
609
158.1k lifetime
Open interest
35.4k
+12 over 24h
Spread
3¢
7.06 × 1 at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 6¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%−1

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 96¢
24h low 4¢24h high 6¢
Recent buying79% YES · 21% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 5:41 AMSep 21, 5:21 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3787¢
  • ask5007¢
  • ask3557¢
  • ask4587¢
  • ask1667¢
  • ask2006¢
  • ask1486¢
  • ask16¢
spread2¢mid 5¢
  • bid1384¢
  • bid6004¢
  • bid3624¢
  • bid6613¢
  • bid5003¢
  • bid1,6663¢
  • bid1533¢
  • bid2403¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls the territory that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The territory must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 7 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 79% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12h ago6¢1bought yes
12h ago6¢258bought yes
12h ago6¢300bought yes
14h ago4¢16bought no
14h ago4¢3bought no
21h ago6¢31bought yes
1d ago7¢14bought yes
1d ago8¢122bought yes
1d ago7¢3bought yes
2d ago4¢22bought no
2d ago4¢99bought no
2d ago4¢32bought no
2d ago8¢0.9bought yes
2d ago8¢99bought yes
2d ago8¢302bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.