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Will the US acquire new territory?·closes in 28mo

Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 21, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 21, 2029

24h volume
239
91.2k lifetime
Open interest
25.2k
−286 over 7d
Spread
3¢
10 × 37 at the touch
24h range
20¢ – 21¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 81¢

YES bid / ask
19¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 81¢
24h low 20¢24h high 21¢
Recent buying10% YES · 90% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask46255¢
  • ask20030¢
  • ask20028¢
  • ask526¢
  • ask50025¢
  • ask9224¢
  • ask1423¢
  • ask3722¢
spread3¢mid 21¢
  • bid1019¢
  • bid1018¢
  • bid50517¢
  • bid1016¢
  • bid6,04013¢
  • bid20012¢
  • bid6.238¢
  • bid1004¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls the territory that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The territory must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 7 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-29JAN21
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 10% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13h ago20¢179bought no
14h ago21¢39bought yes
14h ago21¢20bought yes
17h ago21¢1.04bought yes
1d ago20¢1.23bought no
1d ago21¢1bought yes
1d ago20¢26bought no
1d ago20¢6.16bought no
2d ago22¢21bought yes
2d ago20¢120bought no
4d ago20¢44bought no
5d ago20¢0.62bought no
5d ago20¢44bought no
7d ago23¢1.24bought yes
10d ago23¢1.46bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.