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U.S. headline inflation at year end·closes in 17mo

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 4.0%?

YES means Above 4.0%

24h volume
5
91 lifetime
Open interest
71
Spread
27¢
5 × 202 at the touch
24h range
31¢ – 31¢
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
31%+1

A YES contract costs 32¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
69%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 32¢
NO bid / ask
68¢ / 95¢
24h low 31¢24h high 31¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9474¢
  • ask2,23073¢
  • ask12.5k65¢
  • ask20060¢
  • ask2,50059¢
  • ask7,17958¢
  • ask4557¢
  • ask20232¢
spread27¢mid 18¢
  • bid55¢
  • bid64¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2027 is above 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The initially reported value for December 2027 will be used. This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2027, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4
ticker
KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T4.0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
16h ago31¢5bought yes
3d ago30¢48bought yes
13d ago29¢0.27bought yes
24d ago20¢4.73bought yes
25d ago21¢4.75bought yes
26d ago17¢0.25bought no
26d ago17¢5bought no
26d ago17¢4.75bought no
2mo ago25¢7bought yes
2mo ago25¢2bought yes
2mo ago24¢2bought no
2mo ago24¢1bought no
2mo ago34¢2bought no
2mo ago34¢1bought no
2mo ago34¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.