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U.S. headline inflation at year end·closes in 29mo

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2028 be above 1.5%?

YES means Above 1.5%

24h volume
0
1,792 lifetime
Open interest
226
+222 over 90d
Spread
7¢
19 × 1.23 at the touch
24h range
–
25 recent trades
Chance of YES
70%

A YES contract costs 63¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
30%

costs 44¢

YES bid / ask
56¢ / 63¢
NO bid / ask
37¢ / 44¢
Recent buying89% YES · 11% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volJul 30Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask13086¢
  • ask2.6585¢
  • ask5184¢
  • ask1383¢
  • ask7070¢
  • ask1.5269¢
  • ask564¢
  • ask1.2363¢
spread7¢mid 60¢
  • bid1956¢
  • bid5.255¢
  • bid1484¢
  • bid5.633¢
  • bid42¢
  • bid5.751¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2028 is above 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The initially reported value for December 2028 will be used. This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2028, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 8, 2029 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
1.5
ticker
KXUSCPIYEAR-29FEB01-T1.5
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 25 trades, 89% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
20d ago70¢46bought yes
20d ago69¢1.32bought yes
20d ago66¢2.73bought yes
20d ago69¢1.1bought yes
29d ago70¢4.19bought yes
2mo ago32¢2bought no
2mo ago33¢99bought yes
2mo ago33¢1bought yes
2mo ago33¢100bought yes
2mo ago18¢5bought yes
2mo ago19¢2bought yes
2mo ago19¢2bought yes
2mo ago33¢1bought yes
2mo ago19¢1bought yes
2mo ago70¢600bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.